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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 15 for 8 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model