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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model