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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model