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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(8:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model