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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model