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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger punts 27 yards to BAL 11, Center-53-M.Pouncey. 32-E.Weddle to BAL 29 for 18 yards (13-J.Washington). Roethlisberger punts out of shotgun.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP