Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree to BAL 30 for 7 yards. Lateral to 37-J.Allen to BAL 22 for -8 yards. Lateral to 13-J.Brown to BAL 20 for -2 yards. PENALTY on BAL-13-J.Brown, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.09 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -1.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP