Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(10:32) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.70 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model