Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to ARI 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 18 for 6 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.62 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -2.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model