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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(:28) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to KC 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP