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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to ARI 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 17 for 2 yards (19-M.Kemp).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model