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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to KC 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model