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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 87

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to ARI 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 34 for -5 yards (26-Dam. Williams). PENALTY on ARI-16-T.Sherfield, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 87, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model