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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to ARI 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP