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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 18 for -2 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model