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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to DAL 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-50-L.Reynolds. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP