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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.40 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model