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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 90

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to PHI 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-G.Tate pushed ob at DAL 44 for 12 yards (45-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 47, worth -3.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model