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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model