Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(:53) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to PHI 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-G.Tate to PHI 32 for -1 yards (49-J.Olawale; 35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.40 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model