4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 29

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model