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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Indianapolis Colts 29

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 4-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.88 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model