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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 29 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 41, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.29 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP