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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 29 – Jacksonville Jaguars 26

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.03 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model