4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 28-M.Gordon left end pushed ob at LV 12 for 2 yards (98-F.Rucker; 59-T.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model