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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 5-J.Townsend punts 57 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 18 for 7 yards (85-D.Carrier). PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model