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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 5-J.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model