Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 5-J.Townsend punts 54 yards to LAC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at LAC 22 for 8 yards (85-D.Carrier). PENALTY on LAC-23-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at LAC 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.95 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model