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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model