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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Harris to LAC 1 for no gain (33-D.James).

The Three Options

GO +4.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.69 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model