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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 14 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-C.Wake and 94-R.Quinn).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.09 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model