Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 14 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model