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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 22

Miami Dolphins 9 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model