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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 12 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 88-L.Carroo. 88-L.Carroo up the middle to MIA 43 for 14 yards (32-T.Carson).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model