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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 12 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 8-B.Osweiler pass short left to 83-N.O'Leary to GB 29 for 5 yards (28-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model