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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 12 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 32-K.Drake right guard to MIA 37 for 3 yards (94-D.Lowry).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model