Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 74

New York Giants 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(10:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to SF 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-31-M.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.52 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model