Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to SF 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-R.James to SF 46 for 23 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model