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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYG 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-Q.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.45 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP