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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 20 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYG 38, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF. PENALTY on SF-33-T.Moore, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 38.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model