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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 13

New York Giants 17 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP