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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 9-R.Gould 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP