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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 47

New York Giants 20 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to SF 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP