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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 20 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.79 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model