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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to SF 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-81-R.Shepard.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model