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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to LA 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 21 for 11 yards (36-A.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model