Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to LA 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 24 for 11 yards (36-A.King). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model