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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to LA 3, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP