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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Los Angeles Rams 36

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett [99-A.Donald].

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP