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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model